Primary: No longer first?
That’s UNH political science professor Dante Scala’s prediction, as New Hampshire officials find themselves in a standoff with the Democratic National Committee over when the Granite State’s famed political contest takes place.
One of New Hampshire’s biggest claims to fame for more than 100 years, the coveted first spot in the presidential primary was shifted by DNC officials to South Carolina in late 2022. That move came at the urging of President Joe Biden, who asked the DNC to make changes to its calendar that would “ensure that voters of color have a voice in choosing our nominee much earlier in the process.” Moving South Carolina to the front of the presidential primary calendar bumped New Hampshire to the second spot — March 5, a date it will share with Nevada.
And that’s when the unstoppable force of the 2024 election cycle met an immovable object: a New Hampshire state law that requires officials to hold presidential primaries “seven days or more immediately preceding the date on which any other state shall hold a similar election.”
In other words, Scala believes New Hampshire will do whatever it takes to be first on the calendar, even if it holds a primary not endorsed by the DNC (Republicans have pledged to keep New Hampshire first on their calendar, so that party’s primary won’t be affected). “I think it’s really likely ‘rogue,’ meaning out of compliance with the Democratic Party’s [primary] calendar,” Scala says. “The secretary of state has to follow state law, and there is no chance that is going to change between now and 2024.”
For Granite State politicians, New Hampshire’s place at the front of the nominating process invokes a rare instance of bipartisanship. In a February press release, the state’s congressional delegation released a statement declaring that “no matter what party power brokers or those in Washington think, New Hampshire will once again host our first-in-the-nation contest as we have done for more than a century.”
Those defending New Hampshire’s place at the front of the primary calendar point to the up-close-and-personal nature of the contest. Because it’s smaller in terms of population and square miles, New Hampshire allows voters to have a lot of direct contact with candidates. In turn, the contest provides an economic boost as the nation turns its attention to the Granite State. Politically, the primary can make or break candidates; a strong showing in New Hampshire can revive a flagging campaign, while a poor placing might signal a candidate’s end.
Ultimately, Scala believes this sort of procedural wrangling will escape the attention of most national voters, especially by the time the general election occurs in November. “I’m skeptical that this changes many voters’ minds, particularly Democrats. The state of the economy, what people think about Donald Trump, that’s what voters will look at in the general election,” he says.
The 2024 primary may be less than exciting from a political junkie’s perspective — Biden appears to be the presumptive nominee and a major challenge seems unlikely, Scala says — but the primary’s status could play a large part in future contests. The DNC is likely to reexamine its nominating calendar in 2024, according to Scala, and that could impact the 2028 race for the Democratic nomination — that’s roughly 2,000 days away for most of us, but just around the corner for dedicated political watchers.